Analysis of historical trends in hydrometeorological variables in the upper Cauvery Basin, Karnataka, India

Abstract

The present study examines the significance and magnitude of trends in the monthly rainfall, monthly mean maximum and minimum daily temperatures and streamflow in the Upper Cauvery Basin, Karnataka for a 30-year period, i.e. 1981-2010. Using observed data from 33 rain gauges, 6 climate stations and 4 stream gauging sites, statistical parameters -coefficient of variation (CV) and percentage departure have been calculated for average monthly values separately for three decades. As expected, CV of rainfall showed large variations from December to March, while the percentage departure also varies during these months for different decades. Statistically significant trend was observed in maximum temperature for Chikmagalur and Hassan stations. CV of minimum daily temperature showed large variability from November to March for all climate stations and also a significant increasing trend for Hassan and Bengaluru stations, while for Madikeri a decreasing trend was observed with a variation of -0.16 C/year. Not much variation was found for streamflow, except in K. M. Vadi and T. Narasipur gauge sites, which showed significant decreasing trend of -0.778 m3/s/year. Long-range dependence analysis revealed a weak persistence for both rainfall and streamflow of the basin. Results provide information regarding historical climate trends in the Upper Cauvery Basin, which can form the basis for projecting likely future trends and preparing plans for climate change mitigation and adaptation.