Uncertainties in predicting impacts of climate change on hydrology in basin scale: a review

Abstract

The sensitivity of the hydrological system to climate change and the role of hydrological systems in the environment have motivated researchers to study the impacts of climate change on hydrology. Modelling the hydrological impacts of climate change is generally done in various stages and has uncertainty associated with each of them. These include scenario uncertainty in climate scenario selection, model uncertainty in climate simulation by global climatic models (GCMs), uncertainties while downscaling GCMs, biases in downscaled data, erroneous input to the hydrological model, and uncertainty in the structure and parameterisation of the hydrological model. The present paper aims at reviewing the uncertainties involved at each stage of climate change impact assessment of hydrology. In the near future, climate scenario uncertainties would be smaller than those associated with the choice of GCMs. Multi-model ensemble approach takes better account of uncertainties involved with GCMs. Moreover, considering a range of possible climate scenarios is recommended than using a single best or average case climate scenario. GCMs shall be downscaled by statistical or dynamical methods (regional climatic models (RCMs)) before using them for regional studies. Bias correction methods can considerably improve the RCM simulations. Evaluation of model performance is recommended for regional-scale studies for the preparation of adaptation strategies. Taking into account the uncertainties associated with climate impact studies can help formulate effective adaptation strategies. © 2020, Saudi Society for Geosciences.